By David B. Rivkin
Jr. and Lee A. Casey
Oct. 11, 2020, in
the Wall Street Journal
The U.S. Supreme
Court will decide as early as Monday whether to grant a stay in
Pennsylvania Democratic Party v. Boockvar, in which the Keystone
State’s supreme court, despite state election law to the contrary,
ordered officials to count mail-in ballots received up to three days
after Election Day. The justices should do so. This may turn out to
be a normal election, in which we know the result by Nov. 4 and the
Electoral College meets Dec. 14 to make it official. But a lot could
go wrong, and the complex legal issues can be resolved only by the
high court. Consider these possible scenarios:
• The counting
drags on. If the election is close—and even if it isn’t—the
process of tallying the vote could end up making the 2000 election
dispute look simple. This year’s election procedures are being
revised by courts in multiple states. This raises such questions as
whether widespread mail-in voting and “ballot harvesting” are
permissible and whether ballots received after Election Day can be
counted, along with the overarching question of whether state or
federal courts can create new election rules to address the Covid-19
pandemic.
In Bush v. Gore, the
justices were forced to act by an impending deadline. Based on a
specific constitutional grant of authority, Congress established the
date on which the Electoral College must vote—a hard deadline (this
year Dec. 14). In addition, Congress created a “safe harbor,”
Dec. 8 this year, by which the state’s electoral slate is presumed
to be valid. The court in 2000 acted to stop the recounts to meet the
latter deadline.
Regardless of the
statutory safe harbor, Article II of the Constitution requires each
state to appoint electors “in such manner as the legislature
thereof may direct” in time for the Electoral College vote. Because
this is a specific constitutional duty conferred on state
legislatures, they are exercising federal authority. Therefore
neither state nor federal courts may rewrite election laws applicable
to the selection of presidential electors. Justice Brett Kavanaugh
emphasized that point concurring in Andino v. Middleton, an Oct. 5
order in which the justices stayed an injunction by the Fourth U.S.
Circuit Court of Appeals that would have prevented South Carolina
from enforcing its witness requirement for absentee ballots.
The Constitution
similarly authorizes Congress to establish a single day—this year
Nov. 3—on which presidential electors (and members of Congress)
must be chosen. The election must be conducted on that day. This was
the Supreme Court’s conclusion in Foster v. Love (1997), which
involved congressional elections. The justices ruled that “the
combined actions of voters and officials meant to make a final
selection of an officeholder” must take place on Election Day, even
if some aspects of voting may take place earlier. Thus although
ballots can be completed beforehand and returned through the mail,
they must be received by Nov. 3.
The justices have
discretion over which petitions to hear and when. In cases involving
a pending election, they should err on the side of speed and
decisiveness. The sooner and more clearly these disputes are
adjudicated, the likelier the election will go smoothly—and the
less likely the need for an 11th-hour judicial intervention à la
Bush v. Gore.
If counting isn’t
complete by the time the Electoral College votes on Dec. 14, it’s
possible one or more states will fail to appoint electors, violating
its constitutional duty and leaving it disfranchised.
In that case,
another question may arise: If states are absent from the Electoral
College, does a candidate need a majority of the 538 available
electoral votes (270) to be elected president or vice president, or
is a majority of the votes cast sufficient? The 12th Amendment calls
for “a majority of the whole number of electors appointed,” but
the Supreme Court has never addressed this issue because it has never
arisen. In only three elections—1789, 1864 and 1868—have any
states’ electors gone unappointed, and in all three cases the
winner had a majority either way.
• State
authorities certify competing slates of electors. That’s what
happened in the election of 1876 between Republican Rutherford Hayes
and Democrat Samuel Tilden. Competing officials claimed their party
had won 21 electoral votes from Florida, Louisiana and South
Carolina, plus a single vote from Oregon—together enough to be
decisive. Congress enacted legislation establishing a 15-member
bipartisan “electoral commission” to resolve the dispute. The
result, just in time for Inauguration Day on March 4, 1877, was a
political deal that recognized Hayes as president and ended
Reconstruction throughout the South.
The law creating the
commission rested on no obvious congressional authority and thus was
surely unconstitutional. But in an era when the federal judiciary’s
role was far more circumscribed than today, the issue didn’t come
before the Supreme Court. That would be different today—and rightly
so. A dispute over the certification of electors is a legal question,
not a political one. It would have to be resolved in the courts, and,
given the stakes, ultimately by the Supreme Court.
• Congress
attempts a power grab. In the years after the 1876 dispute, lawmakers
enacted statutes to address the presidential election process,
including barely intelligible language that purports to establish
rules for determining which electoral votes Congress will count and
authorizing members to lodge disputes. This too is constitutionally
dubious although like the 1876 solution, it has never been litigated.
The 12th Amendment
provides that once the electoral votes have been cast, the vice
president receives and opens the votes before a joint session of
Congress. (Under current statutory law, this takes place Jan. 6,
after the new Congress has taken office.) But this is a purely
ministerial function. If no candidate has an Electoral College
majority, the House and Senate, respectively, choose the president
and vice president. That is Congress’s only legitimate role in
deciding the election.
This is for good
reason. The Framers considered having Congress choose the president
but concluded it would give too much power to the legislative branch
and violate the separation of powers. Their solution was the
Electoral College, an ephemeral body with no institutional interests
of its own. Judges don’t decide election outcomes either, but the
Supreme Court has recognized since Marbury v. Madison (1803) that it
is their duty to “say what the law is.”
However disputed the
election results may be, there is no basis for Congress to override
the Electoral College or refuse to count the votes. The House
recognized this in its 1932 report proposing the 20th Amendment,
which noted that it was using “the term ‘President elect’ in
its generally accepted sense, as meaning the person who has received
the majority of the electoral votes, or the person who has been
chosen by the House of Representatives in the event that the election
is thrown into the House. It is immaterial whether or not the votes
have been counted [in Congress], for the person becomes President
elect as soon as the votes are cast.”
Whichever candidates
receive the majority of electoral votes on Dec. 14 immediately become
president and vice president elect, and they will take office on Jan.
20, 2021—even if it takes a Supreme Court ruling to make it so.
Messrs. Rivkin
and Casey practice appellate and constitutional law in Washington.
They served in the White House Counsel’s Office and Justice
Department under Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush.
Source:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-supreme-court-and-the-election-returns-11602435660